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Get ready for the cold

  • #41
Scottychaos, I have a weather buddy up there that said he had a high,on the 18th and 19th, of around 7-8F. I don't know if his information was false or not, but that is what he said. Also, if you look at the link you posted - http://www.wunderground.com/history....alendar
it shows that after Feb. 5th most of the days and nights are 5-15 degrees below average, whcih is what I was forecasting - highs going from above average in January to below average starting around Feb. 5th.Also don't forget that the cold snap isn't over yet. It shows for the 27th a low of 4F.

Computer models continue to show a cold upper low moving over the Canadian maritimes. If this verified, places in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and even North and South Carolina could see some very cold air , even colder than the arctic outbreak in December. But, the models have been inconsistent, so it is very hard to say what will happen. My conclusion, Febuary will continue to remain below average for most of the eastern US, and a possible shot of very cold air is possible around The end of Febuary - early March. It will also be slightly above average in terms of snowfall for the Northeast, with the possibility of another big snowstorm around March 1, give or take a day or to.
dewy
 
  • #42
Where is that weather buddy?  Rochester isn't in NY's Arctic, but it isn't out in the tropics of Long Island either.  If that weather buddy had a high of 7-8 on those days, it must be pretty typical for that spot and doesn't indicate unusual cold in the region.  My mother-in-law used to live in Lake Placid and I remember shoveling her out the morning after a full Mother's Day of snow 10 years or so years ago and then driving through a couple seasons of the year before arriving in nearly 70 degree weather here in CT.  New York is a surprisingly diverse place in every possible way.
 
  • #43
[b said:
Quote[/b] (herenorthere @ Feb. 21 2006,7:58)]Where is that weather buddy?  Rochester isn't in NY's Arctic, but it isn't out in the tropics of Long Island either.  If that weather buddy had a high of 7-8 on those days, it must be pretty typical for that spot and doesn't indicate unusual cold in the region.  My mother-in-law used to live in Lake Placid and I remember shoveling her out the morning after a full Mother's Day of snow 10 years or so years ago and then driving through a couple seasons of the year before arriving in nearly 70 degree weather here in CT.  New York is a surprisingly diverse place in every possible way.
He is close to Niagra Falls.
 
  • #44
The high for Niagara Falls on the 18th and 19th was 25 and 21.
your friend was wrong..

Niagara Falls

Dewy,
you were partially right in your prediction!
smile.gif

cold air from Alaska *has* in fact hit the North East US in February..
you got that part right..
its just not as deadly cold as you thought it would be.
its just a typical Feburary around here..
happens every year..nothing unusual at all.

Scot
 
  • #45
[b said:
Quote[/b] (scottychaos @ Feb. 22 2006,7:51)]The high for Niagara Falls on the 18th and 19th was 25 and 21.
your friend was wrong..

Niagara Falls

Dewy,
you were partially right in your prediction!
smile.gif

cold air from Alaska *has* in fact hit the North East US in February..
you got that part right..
its just not as deadly cold as you thought it would be.
its just a typical Feburary around here..
happens every year..nothing unusual at all.

Scot
It didn't quite miss the US. On the 18th, Caribou, Maine had a high of 4F and a low of -4F. They also had a low of -11F on the 15th.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/history....alendar

Here are just a few record lows from various parts in the US I found.

record Lows Mon Feb 6 2006
Vero Beach FL 37F

Record Lows Wed Feb 8 2006
Vero Beach FL 40F tied 1951

Record Lows Sat Feb 11th 2006
Olympia WA 22F

Record Lows Mon Feb 13th 2006
Daytona Beach FL 29F
Melbourne FL 32F
Vero Beach FL 34F tied 1985

Record Lows Thu Feb 16th 2006
Delta UT -5F
Lancaster CA 21F tied 1956
Redding CA 23F
Paso Robles CA 24F
Red Bluff CA 25F
Sacramento Airport CA 28F
Oakland Airport CA 34F tied 1938
Monterey CA 35F
San Jose CA 37F tied 1912
San Francisco CA 38F tied 1956
Oakland CA 38F

IN CANADA
Lloydminster AB -33.2C - 28F

Record Lows Fri Feb 17 2006

Casper WY -32F **COLDEST EVER DURING FEBRUARY**
Alliance NE -30F
Chadron NE -28F
Scottsbluff NE -20F tied 1993
Sidney NE -19F
Rawlins WY -14F tied 1993
Denver CO -10F
Santa Barbara Airport CA 33F tied 1975

Record Lows Sat Feb 18th 2006

Alliance NE -36F **COLDEST EVER DURING FEB **
Chadron NE -33F
Casper WY -31F
Riverton WY -28F tied 1993
Rhinelander WI -28F
Marshfield WI -26F
Rawlins WY -25F
Worland WY -23F
Scottsbluff NE -23F
LaCrosse WI -21F
Mason City IA -20F tied 1936
Rochester MN -19F
Waterloo IA -19F
Dubuque IA -18F
Rock Springs WY -18F
Dillon MT -18F
Laramie WY -16F tied 1969
Denver CO -13F
Yuma CO -11F
Idaho Falls ID -5F tied 1956
Goodland KS -4F tied 1942
Islip NY 15F
Eureka CA 30F

Record Lows Sun Feb 19 2006

Chadron NE -19F
Casper WY -17F
Alliance NE -16F tied 1936
Dubuque IA -13F tied 1979
Sidney NE -11F
Rawlins WY -10F
Worland WY -8F
Yuma CO -7F
Kalispell MT -6F tied 1960
Burlington CO -5F tied 1929
Colorado Springs CO -5F
Rock Springs WY -5F
Denver CO -4F
Missoula MT -2F tied 1932
Tribune KS -2F tied 1929
Colby KS 0F tied 1929
Hill City KS 3F tied 1955
Yakima WA 7F
Pendleton OR 8F
Islip NY 13F
Olympia WA 13F
Salem OR 18F
Eugene OR 18F
Astoria OR 19F
Abilene TX 19F tied 1936
Portland OR 23F
Redding CA 29F
Eureka CA 29F

These are just a few, as I don't want to take up a whole page on record lows. As  you can see, many areas had record lows all over the US.

Models continue to flip flop daily, so it is hard to say how cold the next blast will be. All I can say is the it will start around Feb. 25th and last about week. The eastern US should continue to expect normal to below normal highs.
dewy
 
  • #46
Looks like a big winter storm might be shaping up for eastern parts of the Northeast. The GFS shows a classic low riding up the coast, with QPF amounts of about 1 inch. Looking at this, I think that a big snowstorm (at least 8 inches or more of snow) is possible around March 6-8th, somewhere in that time frame. It is still a little too early to tell snowfall amounts right now, but in a few days I will make some Preliminary snowfall estimates.

March 7th.
gfs_slp_252m.gif


March 8th.
gfs_slp_264m.gif


March 8th.
gfs_slp_276m.gif
 
  • #47
Well, computer models have once again flip flopped, and show the storm missing the NE, so it looks like no big snowstorm in the next few days, at least for the NE.
dewy
 
  • #48
Enough with the cold forecasting: when can I expect the next rainy, 50+ degree night? I want to put my plants out for mother nature to water instead of me having to do it all the time.
 
  • #49
[b said:
Quote[/b] (herenorthere @ Mar. 05 2006,10:06)]Enough with the cold forecasting: when can I expect the next rainy, 50+ degree night?  I want to put my plants out for mother nature to water instead of me having to do it all the time.
Probably around March 20th or so you will begin seeing 50+ degree nights, but it is a little too early to tell. March 10th and 11th might hit 60F with a low around 40-45F.
 
  • #50
Thanks. One of the local forecast readers said something about 60s within a week, but the official forecasts are still stuck in the 30s and 40s. My onion and leek seedlings are a couple inches tall and I've definitely switched into Spring mode.
 
  • #51
[b said:
Quote[/b] (herenorthere @ Mar. 05 2006,5:40)]Thanks.  One of the local forecast readers said something about 60s within a week, but the official forecasts are still stuck in the 30s and 40s.  My onion and leek seedlings are a couple inches tall and I've definitely switched into Spring mode.
March 11th (this Sat.) you should get close to 60F. I, too, am ready for spring so I can put some of my cp's outside.
BTW- Some models are hinting at a big snowstorm between the 11th and 16th, so I thought I would give you a head's up about the possibility of it.
dewy
 
  • #52
[b said:
Quote[/b] (herenorthere @ Mar. 05 2006,5:40)]Thanks.  One of the local forecast readers said something about 60s within a week, but the official forecasts are still stuck in the 30s and 40s.  My onion and leek seedlings are a couple inches tall and I've definitely switched into Spring mode.
If I were you, I would take all of your cp in Tuesday evening as it appears it is going to get very cold again, with snow likely.
http://www.weather.com/weather....eclared
 
  • #53
[b said:
Quote[/b] ]If I were you, I would take all of your cp in Tuesday evening as it appears it is going to get very cold again, with snow likely.

Heck, the ones that are outside have been out all winter. I think I'll just leave 'em. Snow is just water in a slow release pill form!
smile.gif
 
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