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Get ready for the cold

  • #21
To slide further off topic - my parents moved to one of those retirement communities outside Phoenix several years ago.  Gated communities are springing up everywhere as people cash in on the inflated value of their homes elsewhere.  Then the old people vote against every local school budget because they feel no connection to any of the area's children.  Some have even seceded from local school districts.  The elderly spend their time playing golf on grass growing in a desert and driving into stores and each other's cars.  Maybe my mother-in-law had the right idea; she moved to the northern border of Vermont.  She'll shiver every time those synopics send massive cold pooling her way, whatever that means, but at least she's pretty well protected from other old people.
 
  • #22
Bruce, that is one of the funniest (and truest) things i've read in a looong time
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Well, this and a topic I read a few days ago about not giving tap water to CPs...

Speaking of driving through buildings... That happened not to long ago to another store here (it's pretty common, is Bruce's explanation why??) The next day when I drove by, there was plywood covering the hole where the car once sat. On the wood there were spraypainted words that said "Drive through closed"
 
  • #23
How come 10 day weather forecasts aren't showing this? They're showing February 2nd with a high of 43 for me in New York City. I would think that weather centers would put this into account on account of a 40 degree difference in a weather forecast would destroy their credibility.
 
  • #24
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Amateur_Expert @ Jan. 24 2006,10:02)]How come 10 day weather forecasts aren't showing this? They're showing February 2nd with a high of 43 for me in New York City. I would think that weather centers would put this into account on account of a 40 degree difference in a weather forecast would destroy their credibility.
Amateur Expert,the reason is because the cold air won't be getting to New York until around Feb. 10th. Also, when the air gets to New York, it will have modified (warmed some on its journey south).

Looking at current computer models, the Euro continues to show large amounts of arctic air bottling up in Alaska and western Canada. It also shows several high pressures located near the North Pole, which is pumping the air from the North Pole into Alaska and Canada.
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdf_50.gif
Seven day Euro shows this with lots of purples in Alaska. Go to  ECMWF Surface/500MB Forecasts for North America about half way down and click on Day 7.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

EDIT- Forgot to add, it is -45F in Fairbanks,AK,whereas they should be at around 5F this time of year!
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USAK0083?from=search_current
 
  • #25
Ok, so what you are saying is that we should start building giant fans all across the US/Canadian border. Then when the cold air starts coming we turn all the fans on and blow it back north.
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  • #26
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Gawd_oOo @ Jan. 25 2006,3:47)]Ok, so what you are saying is that we should start building giant fans all across the US/Canadian border. Then when the cold air starts coming we turn all the fans on and blow it back north.
suspicious.gif
No, I am just saying to get ready for the cold, because it will be coming in February.
dewy
 
  • #27
Looking at warming of the stratosphere, computer model runs,and various other things I use for forecasting the weather. The low last night in Fairbanks,Alaska was -50F, which was only 16 degrees from the all time record of -66F. Whitehorse,Canada is also getting colder, with a low last night of -28F. My conclusion is that the cold air will be coming probably around Feb. 5-10th for Northern parts of the US east of the Rocky Mountains.
dewy

BTW, looks like a snowstorm might be shaping up for for the Northeast between the 14th-16th of Feb.
 
  • #30
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Amateur_Expert @ Jan. 26 2006,4:39)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (dewy @ Jan. 25 2006,1:24)]EDIT- Forgot to add, it is -45F in Fairbanks,AK,whereas they should be at around 5F this time of year!
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USAK0083?from=search_current
Yet the 10 day shows it getting warmer through February 4th. http://www.weather.com/weather....eclared
Weather.com has been showing that warming trend for a week now, but it has just gotten colder instead. Generally, with such a cold air mass in place, the forecast is usually too warm.
dewy
 
  • #31
Anyone check to see what Dr. Turi has to say about this?
 
  • #32
Well,models continue showing the cold air coming into the US starting around Feb.6th or so.Yukon,Alaska had a low this morning of -64F! I won't be able to make any more forecasts until Feb. 18th as I will be busy with school until then.
dewy
 
  • #33
Anybody notice the cold? The Northeast had a HUGE snowstorm a few days ago, and numerous places in the US have had record lows recently. Feel free to post on what you think about the cold.
dewy
 
  • #34
That huge snowfall (24" here) was gone in a few days and, although we're a little colder than normal, it's only by a little. Not to be too cynical or anything, but predicting there'll be some cold in February is like predicting there'll be some hot in August.
 
  • #35
still on that Dr. Turi thing?!
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We have had far too warm a winter here, good to get normal temperatures. the perrenial in the elevated beds will be fried.
smile_h_32.gif
 
  • #36
[b said:
Quote[/b] (herenorthere @ Feb. 18 2006,9:53)]That huge snowfall (24" here) was gone in a few days and, although we're a little colder than normal, it's only by a little.  Not to be too cynical or anything, but predicting there'll be some cold in February is like predicting there'll be some hot in August.
Yes, but since many areas in the Northeast had the warmest January on record, most people would assume that spring arrived early. Also, Alliance, Nebraska had a record low of -36F just 2 days ago. Also, many other areas in the Midwest had record lows also. In the peak of winter, Alaska usually will struggle to have lows colder than -45F. Fortunately for the Northeast, they did not get this cold.

Looks like the Midwest will start to slowly warm back to normal and even above normal by Saturday. Meanwhile, looks like another blast of very cold air will be coming from Canada around Feb.25-27th or so.
Look at the one on the left side,which is the current setup. The red line is about where the rain/snow line is.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/mslp_f000_us.html

Now notice how the rain/snow line is almost to Florida.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/mslp_f192_us.html
 
  • #37
New York City had record snowfall. I'd say the prediction was correct. The other night the temperature went down to 13 degrees. Well below average.
 
  • #38
But a deep snow is all about storm track and the deepest part of the track went over New York City, gaining a lot more publicity than if the deepest snow fell in Syracuse.  If there had been a strong cold system overhead, there would have been little snow.

As for February temperatures, the degree day total is about 100 below normal for the month.  Since we're ~20 days into the month, that means we're averaging about 5 degrees above normal.  Not quite the 7 degrees above normal we saw for January but warmer than the 3 degrees below normal we had in December.

The prediction said, "New York could see one of the coldest moths on record, with multiple days having highs below 0F" and that hasn't happened here, 100 miles east of NY.  In fact, we haven't even been below 0F yet.  That's unusual.  Some of my crocuses began blooming the first week of February, ~3 weeks early and they're still blooming today.

I can't speak for other parts of the country, but this area hasn't been cold. That doesn't mean the prediction was bad. Dewy said NY could see a record month (well, actually moth), but weather's chaotic and things changed.
 
  • #39
[b said:
Quote[/b] (herenorthere @ Feb. 20 2006,4:17)]But a deep snow is all about storm track and the deepest part of the track went over New York City, gaining a lot more publicity than if the deepest snow fell in Syracuse.  If there had been a strong cold system overhead, there would have been little snow.

As for February temperatures, the degree day total is about 100 below normal for the month.  Since we're ~20 days into the month, that means we're averaging about 5 degrees above normal.  Not quite the 7 degrees above normal we saw for January but warmer than the 3 degrees below normal we had in December.

The prediction said, "New York could see one of the coldest moths on record, with multiple days having highs below 0F" and that hasn't happened here, 100 miles east of NY.  In fact, we haven't even been below 0F yet.  That's unusual.  Some of my crocuses began blooming the first week of February, ~3 weeks early and they're still blooming today.

I can't speak for other parts of the country, but this area hasn't been cold.  That doesn't mean the prediction was bad.  Dewy said NY could see a record month (well, actually moth), but weather's chaotic and things changed.

I didn't mean all of New York. I was talking about western New York. They have had several days where the highs struggled to get above 5F. Also, Dallas, Texas didn't get above freezing for 2, almost 3, days in a row. This is about 30 below average for them. The Outer Banks of NC saw a light dusting of snow today,the first snow for some areas in about 5 years.

About temps being 5F above normal,according to the weather channel, most of the Northeast has been about 5-15F below normal, especially northern Maine.

Sorry about the misspelling (moth instead of month).

Looks like most of the US will warm to above average until the next surge of cold air starts coming down around  Feb. 24th or so.
dewy
 
  • #40
[b said:
Quote[/b] (dewy @ Feb. 20 2006,12:57)]I didn't mean all of New York. I was talking about western New York. They have had several days where the highs struggled to get above 5F.

ummmm. no, we havent had that.
im in Western NY..and yes, its been chilly out here for the last few days..but nothing out of the oridinary for winter.

We havent had any "highs near 5 degrees.."
actually, we havnt had a LOW of 5 degrees..
the lowest low since December has been plus 9,
and that was last Sunday..the high for the day was 22.

yeah, its been cold..maybe that Alaskan air is over us..but its nothing like ""New York could see one of the coldest moths on record, with multiple days having highs below 0F"

nothing even close to that has happened...
its been a perfectly normal, average sort of cold in February.
nothing unusual at all..
We finally got normal winter the last few weeks..
and I would say its even on the warm side for an average February.

Here is the last month for Rochester, NY.
actual highs and lows:

Rochester temps

All of Western NY is essentially identical to Rochester's numbers..
I could also post Syracuse and Buffalo, but they will be close enough to be meaningless..

Scot
 
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