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  • #41
That its primitive has nothing to do with it. invasive species made it decline, yes.

Oh you are arguing that a new predator would have destroyed them anyways. Why 200,000 years? They have lasted this long already for millions. You could say that for any timescale.

"ripe" wow. lets see. That argument holds no water because those invasive species couldnt get there, so there was no problem at all.

More endangered.... im not talking abut whats more threatening im saying that it is a threat. You are more likely to die in a car crash than a terrorist attack, but that doesn’t mean terrorists are threatening.

We have been doomed to extinction since our ancestors left the trees. so have crocodiles, birds ,every thin. You dont seem to understand that isolated areas from competition can stay that way, until we come along. Australia is apparently doomed to lose most of its marsupials. the only way it has that many is that few placental have reached its shores. so that means, by your argument, that they are bound to be wiped out sometime in the far future.


YOU don’t know weather or not a species will be wiped out by what 100 or 1000 years from know. Unless you have some future-seeing ability, you will be wrong as often as you will be right because life is more complicated than that. So you’ don’t have the right to say that would be gone anyways because you don’t know that.


As for experts seeing inly 150 years into the past. Lets look at paleoclimatology. I will refer to the climatic data from the past 2000 years first
[b said:
Quote[/b] ]Beginning in the 1970's, paleoclimatologists began constructing a blueprint of how the Earth's temperature changed over the centuries before 1850 and the widespread use of thermometers. Out of this emerged a view of the past climate based on limited data from tree rings, historical documents, sediments and other proxy data sources. Today, many more paleoclimate records are available from around the world, providing a much improved view of past changes in the Earth's temperature.

Over the last decade, there has been a major breakthrough in our understanding of global temperature change over the last 1000 years. Several different but important studies, published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, revolutionized what we know about the 20th century in the context of past centuries. The research of the late 1990s formed the foundation for a progression of studies that followed, incorporating advances in statistical techniques and information from a broad range of proxy data types
last2000.jpg
Most striking is the fact that each record reveals a steep increase in the rate or spatial extent of warming since the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. When compared to the most recent decades of the instrumental record, they indicate the temperatures of the most recent decades are the warmest in the entire record. In addition, warmer than average temperatures are more widespread over the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century than in any previous time.

The similarity of characteristics among the different paleoclimatic reconstructions provides confidence in the following important conclusions:
Dramatic warming has occurred since the 19th century.
The recent record warm temperatures in the last 15 years are indeed the warmest temperatures the Earth has seen in at least the last 1000 years, and possibly in the last 2000 years.
[/QUOTE]

Gleaned from the NOAA itself [url="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/paleolast.html"]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/paleolast.html[/url]
That is the past 2000 years in temperature. The data speaks for itself.
 
  • #42
One species that is currently at risk of extiction directly caused by global warming is polar bears. If the ice caps melt they have lost their habitat.

This really distresses me. If the polar bears are gone, whose going to slide around on icebergs and drink coke at Christmas?

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  • #43
a quick glance of those charts shows they dont agree with each other but all show one thing.................we were warming up BEFORE we started throwing greenhouse gases into the air in any major way. also none of them take into account that we are STILL COMING OUT OF A MAJOR ICE AGE PERIOD if not still in one. of course temps are rising!!!
 
  • #44
didnt you see the pics of the polar bear/grizzly hybrid shot last year Ozzy? i think they have found away to beat extinction......they are having affairs with the gizzlys...........and who said animals were stupid
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  • #45
see below post
 
  • #46
Let me elaborate, actually. The last interglacial period actually was shorter than this one. So the argument that we are still coming out of it is suspect, because it took much shorter for the last one to "come out of it" and then go back in again. Yes, i see what you mean by the rise, but the sharpest correlates to the industrial revolution
 
  • #47
so what explains the spike at about 1000? we are not out of the ice age yet, heck places in Britain still havent responded completly to the relief of several miles of ice no longer being on them. they are still rising a bit every year. and how can you say we are completly out of it? where is your data to support that or more accuratly the ability to see into the future that you asked me about earlier? your only looking at 2000 years or less worth of data, in the scheme of things we are talking about that is not enough to be meaningful. you have to be looking at the scale of tens of thousands of years and even them you only see that we are coming out of an ice age. nothing more. sure dont have any info on temp spikes for that period. heck in that time frame there was not really a sahara desert, it was lush grasslands, its only been a major desert for the last few thousand years. looking back 2000 years is not looking back far enough to guage this, not only that if we are infact out of the ice age completely we have to look back PAST the last one and compare our temps to then and we simply CANNOT do that.
 
  • #48
See above post, i recently changed it. Like i said before, the last interglacial period actually was shorter than this one. So the argument that we are still coming out of it is suspect, because it took much shorter for the last one to "come out of it" and then go back in again. Is the past 2000 years not far enough? Ok cool, i have a chart for the past 150,000. i just have to find it...
 
  • #49
lets see it
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this is great..........i argue politics with Bruce and i get to argue enviromental stuff with you................life is good
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  • #50
Alright first of all

that hump in the middle is called the midievil warm period

[b said:
Quote[/b] ]Norse seafaring and colonization around the North Atlantic at the end of the 9th century was generalized as proof that the global climate then was warmer than today. In the early days of paleoclimatology, the sparsely distributed paleoenvironmental records were interpreted to indicate that there was a "Medieval Warm Period" where temperatures were warmer than today. This "Medieval Warm Period" or "Medieval Optimum," was generally believed to extend from the 9th to 13th centuries, prior to the onset of the so-called "Little Ice Age."

In contrast, the evidence for a global (or at least northern hemisphere) "Little Ice Age" from the 15th to 19th centuries as a period when the Earth was generally cooler than in the mid 20th century has more or less stood the test of time as paleoclimatic records have become numerous. The idea of a global or hemispheric "Medieval Warm Period" that was warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect.  
smnhemmill.gif
For larger viewing version of graph, please click here or on image.

There are not enough records available to reconstruct global or even hemispheric mean temperature prior to about 600 years ago with a high degree of confidence. What records that do exist show is that there was no multi-century periods when global or hemispheric temperatures were the same or warmer than in the 20th century. For example, Mann et al. (1999) generated a 1,000 year Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction (shown above) using data from multiple ice cores and tree ring records. This reconstruction suggests that the 1998 annual average temperature was more than two standard deviations warmer than any annual average temperature value since AD 1,000 (shown in yellow). In summary, it appears that the 20th century, and in particular the late 20th century, is likely the warmest the Earth has seen in at least 1200 years. To learn more about the so-called "Medieval Warm Period", please read this review published in Climatic Change, written by M.K. Hughes and H.F. Diaz.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/medieval.html

[b said:
Quote[/b] ]The Earth has experienced other warm times in the past, including the Medieval Warm Period (approximately 800-1300 AD), the mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago), and the penultimate interglacial period (125,000 years ago). These warm periods are described in the sections below

Paleoclimate for times before 2,000 years ago are also useful because they reveal the full extent of natural climate variability. These older records show that climate has changed abruptly in the past, and also reveal a remarkable correspondence between carbon dioxide change and temperature change during the Earth glacial cycles, described in the sections below.
petit150.jpg


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/paleobefore.html

I enjoy debating with you. This is fun.
 
  • #51
just cause the last interglacil period was shorter does that mean they were all shorter?

from your data above:
[b said:
Quote[/b] ]Norse seafaring and colonization around the North Atlantic at the end of the 9th century was generalized as proof that the global climate then was warmer than today

how are we experiancing global warming if we havent even hit the level it was just 1100 years ago yet?...................alot of your other data says we are possibly warmer than we have been for probably the last 2000 years than you post the above which contradicts that.............
 
  • #52
Also from my data from above
[b said:
Quote[/b] ]The idea of a global or hemispheric "Medieval Warm Period" that was warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect
you didnt read through completely.
as you can see, there is no contradiction
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And i know you are wondering, how does the long-term data bolster my argument. It shows that we are not still coming out of an ice age, for one. Secondly, from my link
[b said:
Quote[/b] ] remarkable correspondence between carbon dioxide change and temperature change during the Earth glacial cycles, described in the sections below
This is the big one. The carbon dioxide levels directly relate almost exactly
[b said:
Quote[/b] ]One of the most remarkable aspects of the paleoclimate record is the strong correspondence between temperature and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere observed during the glacial cycles of the past several hundred thousand years. When the carbon dioxide concentration goes up, temperature goes up. When the carbon dioxide concentration goes down, temperature goes down. A small part of the correspondence is due to the relationship between temperature and the solubility of carbon dioxide in the surface ocean, but the majority of the correspondence is consistent with a feedback between carbon dioxide and climate. These changes are expected if the Earth is in radiative balance, and are consistent with the role of greenhouse gases in climate change. While it might seem simple to determine cause and effect between carbon dioxide and climate from which change occurs first, or from some other means, the determination of cause and effect remains exceedingly difficult. Furthermore, other changes are involved in the glacial climate, including altered vegetation, land surface characteristics, and ice-sheet extent.
temperature-change.jpg

Temperature change (blue) and carbon dioxide change (red) observed in ice core records Many other records are available

Taking these different influences into account, it is possible to determine how much the temperature decreased when carbon dioxide was reduced, and use this scaling (termed climate sensitivity) to determine how much temperature might increase as carbon dioxide increases. An estimate from the tropical ocean, far from the influence of ice sheets, indicates that the tropical ocean may warm 5°C for a doubling of carbon dioxide. The paleo data provide a valuable independent check on the sensitivity of climate models, and the 5°C value is consistent with many of the current coupled climate models.

Other paleo proxies help us understand the role of the oceans in past and future climate change. The ocean contains 60 times more carbon than the atmosphere, and as expected, the changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were paralleled by changes in carbon in the ocean over the past several hundred thousand years. While the ocean changes much more slowly than the atmosphere, the ocean played an essential role in past variations in carbon dioxide, and will also play a role in the future over thousands of years.

Finally, the paleo data reveal that climate change is not just about temperature. As carbon dioxide has changed in the past, many other aspects of climate changed too. During glacial times, snow-lines were lower, continents were drier, and the tropical monsoons were weaker. Some of these changes may be independent, others tightly coupled to the changing level of carbon dioxide. Understanding which of these changes might occur in the future, and how large those changes might be, remains a topic of vigorous research. The Paleoclimatology Program exists to help scientists document these changes that have occurred in the past as one approach to understanding future climate change.  

In conclusion, it can b e surmised that the climate is directly related to the levels of carbon  dioxide in the atmosphere. More carbon dioxide = warmer temperatures, as conclusivly proven by climate records
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  • #53
dont mean to sound like an arse but read BOTH of your last two posts.........your contridicting yourself or using evidence to back you up that contridicts your argument. first you tell me the spike in your data is from the medival warm period and the next batchj of data you present says such a thing doesnt exist......................pick a side and stick with it!!!
 
  • #54
Well, first of all yes that spike was the midievil warm period. The data and i actually state that yes there was a warm period, but that the midievil warm period often cited as being warmer than today does not exist. Please re-read my last reply
[b said:
Quote[/b] ]The idea of a global or hemispheric "Medieval Warm Period" that was warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect

The idea of a global or hemispheric "Medieval Warm Period" that was warmer than today is incorrect, but the phenomena itself does exist, as is seen in the graphs. Its just not as warm as today. Got it?
 
  • #55
please remember im trying to do this at work...........must by necesity skim.......

question, what are they using for temp referances when you start getting back nearly half a million years? leads me to think they could miss warm periods 100 years long or more in the data with ease.
 
  • #56
Links to something too technical to easily understand but the gist of the reading is “"GT4" ice core chronology (gas and ice chronology),
Deuterium and reconstructed temperature, Dust content, Sodium concentrations,
CO2, CH4, atmospheric oxygen composition.  

This is in unfiltered scientific jargon  about the temperature from that link
[b said:
Quote[/b] ] Column  4 -Temperature difference wrt the mean recent time value
(i.e. corresponding departure from –438  ‰ mean deuterium value)
Deuterium data is from core 3G between 138 and 2083 meters below surface (mbs)
(with one long missing section between 312 and 320 mbs), from core 4G between 8 and
138 mbs and between 1920 and 2546 mbs and from core 5G between 2504 and 2757 mbs.
Ash layers help to make link between cores. No correction was applied for 3G and 4G
core taken as reference depth. For 5G samples, a value of 3.41 m have been added
to the depth measured in the field  below depth of 2500 m.
Deuterium values (column 3) have been measured on ice samples of length comprised
between 0.5 and 2 m (down to 2080 m) then every 1 m. Data was re-interpolated on 1m
intervals afterwards. The ice recovery is 85% or higher. Measurement accuracy is
of ± 0.5‰ SMOW  (1 s). From the surface down to 7 m a constant value
(derived from surface and pits samples) of -438.0 ‰ is reported.
The temperature change indicated in column 4 (temperature above the inversion).
This temperature is calculated using a deuterium/temperature gradient of 9‰/°C
after accounting for the isotopic change of sea-water. No correction for the
influence of the geographical position of the ice was applied.  

For the rest of us, there is this

“June of 1999 the latest ice core data from the Vostok site in Antarctica were published by Petit et al in the British journal Nature.  These new data extended the historical record of temperature variations and atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane and other greenhouse trace gases (GTG) back to 420,000 years before present (BP).  The ice cores were drilled to over 3,600 meters.  This is just over 2.2 miles deep.  These new data double the length of the historical record.” - and the data from this reading shows the formentiond graph
 
  • #57
Go watch An Inconveniant Truth. I thought it was pretty good.
 
  • #58
[b said:
Quote[/b] (JustLikeAPill @ Jan. 08 2007,4:29)]Go watch An Inconveniant Truth. I thought it was pretty good.
called propoganda..............while i havent felt like spending the $3 to rent it ive been told its entertaining if you know anything. IIRC the number one thing that sticks out is the graph they show for earths temps is flatlined untill you hit 100 years ago and looks nothing like the heart attack EKG graphs like what Finch has been posting here which are prolly alot closer to the truth. its like Michael Moores stuff..........sure its entertaining but dont base an argument on it as its full of more holes than swiss cheese
 
  • #59
I think the REAL travesty here is why our video store charges $5 and yours charges $3!

Lol, and you're right about the graphs. They do like like a heart attack on an EKG machine lol. I like Michael moore.. but I can't help feeling that if he really cared all that much he would donate all the profits to whatever charity fights for his causes. His movies are most definately entertaining. Nothing funnier than a hairy sweaty hippopotamus complain
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  • #60
I just discovered this thread and only skimmed it, so I apologize for any repetition here.

Anyway, it's remarkable how the end of the political spectrum that claimed Iraq was an immediate nuclear threat doesn't accept the evidence of global warming.  Why should we trust those that lied about Iraq to tell the truth about global warming?  This isn't a slam on the people here, by the way, because they trusted what they were told.  But, as the saying goes - fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

The evidence of global warming wouldn't mean much by itself, since we haven't gone beyond the scale of natural variation yet.  But that's only because it takes time for the system to catch up with the changes we've been imposing on it.  The physics of it says we're changing the earth in a way that will warm the earth and the only question is how much.  The estimates range from mild to scary and it's a dangerous experiment to be running in our home.

As for the ability of life to survive change, a lot of that is because things move.  As the climate warms, species move north or uphill.  The species of the northern US were in the southern US 10,000 years ago.  We move fast and so do other highly mobile species, but complete ecosystems can't.  Red spruce forests have "migrated" to the upper northeast and Canada's Maritimes, plus high elevations further south in the Appalachians.  Thats hundreds of miles of movement in ten thousand years.  Red spruce ecosystems isolated at North Carolina mountain tops, of course, have nowhere else to go.

Without a doubt, insects will adapt to whatever comes.  Not individual species, necessarily, but evolution is a powerful force in organisms with high reproductive rates.  Their descendents will endure.  But species with low reproductive rates, like us, might be in serious trouble.
 
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