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Thread: Global warming?

  1. #49
    Outsiders71's Avatar
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    Don't get me wrong, I'm all for renewable resources (the sooner the better) that don't pollute not only for environmental concerns but also for this country's independence from foreign fuel. However I'm very skeptical and admittedly unread on this topic because I just don't believe good predictions can be made about the climate. For instance I believe it was in 70's when scientists were crying Global Cooling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling). I mean common our weather meteorologists with X dopplar radars can't even predict tomorrows weather forecast correctly and sometimes not even the day of (unless you're lucky enough to live in San Diego).
    James 1:17

    "Every good and perfect gift is from above, coming down from the Father of the heavenly lights, who does not change like shifting shadows."

  2. #50

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    Three things:

    1) Global cooling never had any scientific support - it was just a media scare. Contrast that with the indisputable scientific consensus on global warming.

    2) Local, small-scale effects are hard to predict because minor and unknown variations can effect them. Global, large-scale effects are easier to predict because local, small variation is insufficient to affect the system as a whole. For example, say I weight a pair of dice so they should come up with high numbers more often. I cannot possibly predict what the next roll will be, only that over the next 30 rolls the average will be greater than 7.

    3) Actually, climate simulations are quite good at predicting climate, though of course they continually need to be refined. In fact, the first major climate model to address global warming, produced in 1988, has predicted the past 20 years quite well for something that came out a computer with maybe 10 megs of RAM. See here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...ions/#more-447

    So basically, global cooling is not a worthwhile comparison, there are valid reasons why large-scale modeling is easier than small-scale, and climate models have actually proven themselves to be accurate.

    Mokele
    \"With malleus aforethought, mammals got an earful of their ancestor's jaw.\"
    --J. Burns, on the evolution of auditory ossicles.

  3. #51
    I drink to make others more interesting. bpullin's Avatar
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    This just in from the Washington Times....

    Article published Aug 14, 2007
    Inside the Beltway


    August 14, 2007


    John McCaslin - Before Gore

    D.C. resident John Lockwood was conducting research at the Library of Congress and came across an intriguing Page 2 headline in the Nov. 2, 1922 edition of The Washington Post: "Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt."

    The 1922 article, obtained by Inside the Beltway, goes on to mention "great masses of ice have now been replaced by moraines of earth and stones," and "at many points well-known glaciers have entirely disappeared."

    "This was one of several such articles I have found at the Library of Congress for the 1920s and 1930s," says Mr. Lockwood. "I had read of the just-released NASA estimates, that four of the 10 hottest years in the U.S. were actually in the 1930s, with 1934 the hottest of all."

    Worth pondering

    Reacting yesterday to word that certain European governments and officials are suddenly trying to abandon their costly "global warming" policies, Royal Astronomical Society fellow Benny Peiser, of the science faculty at Liverpool John Moores University in Great Britain, recalls the teachings of Marcus Aurelius: "The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
    We'll raise up our glasses against evil forces
    Singing whiskey for my men, beer for my horses

    1-20-13 = The End of an Error.

  4. #52

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    Irrelevant.

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94

    Basically, the climate has been warming since the 1850's, but in the 1940's, the trend reversed due to increased sulfate aerosols. When the aerosol concentration diminished again, warming resumed. In essence, we had a temporary reprieve (which was not without its own consequences, namely acid rain).

    Your cited article is meaningless, and only points out that there were warming trends both before and after the sulfate dip. It in no way undermines anthropogenic climate forcing.

    Mokele
    \"With malleus aforethought, mammals got an earful of their ancestor's jaw.\"
    --J. Burns, on the evolution of auditory ossicles.

  5. #53
    I drink to make others more interesting. bpullin's Avatar
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    We'll raise up our glasses against evil forces
    Singing whiskey for my men, beer for my horses

    1-20-13 = The End of an Error.

  6. #54
    Lauderdale's Avatar
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    Lordy! Is this thread still alive?

  7. #55
    Whats it to ya? Finch's Avatar
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    not yet *cocks gun.

    Lets put it out of its misery…



    BANG
    that makes no logic

  8. #56

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    bpullin, how about a source of information that *isn't* totally discredited?

    If you actually do some real research, you find that global-warming skepticism is like creationism: a bunch of objections which may superficially make sense, but evaporate upon examination.

    Mokele
    \"With malleus aforethought, mammals got an earful of their ancestor's jaw.\"
    --J. Burns, on the evolution of auditory ossicles.

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