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New scientific study on the sun in global warming.

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Finch

Whats it to ya?
There has been some discussion on the sun's effects on global warming, so i wanted to throw in a paper that is relevant.

http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2008/312/3

Don't blame the sun for recent global warming. A new analysis, based on historical data rather than computer simulations, shows that our star's role in climate change has been vastly overtaken by other factors, particularly the human-induced buildup of greenhouse gases.

We get our warmth from the sun, sure, but our climate results from a complex and precarious balance of additional factors, including ocean currents, winds, the amount of snow and ice cover, and even Earth's orbit and rotational wobble. It's well-known that our climate has been warming over the past century--a situation most researchers blame on human-induced buildup of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases. Studies have shown that the sun was a driving factor in climate change in preindustrial times, but some researchers have wondered whether changes in the sun's intensity are continuing to play a major role, possibly by hitting the planet with more heat than normal.

To help nail down the effect of solar radiation, geophysicist Mike Lockwood of the University of Southampton, U.K., examined data available since 1955 on the monthly average output of the sun, including sunspots, magnetic activity, and cosmic-ray variations. Then he compared those data, month by month, with average global temperature records, as well as El Niño- and La Niña-induced weather cycles and the atmospheric effects of major volcanic eruptions. The result, Lockwood and colleagues report in two papers published online this week in the Proceedings of the Royal Society A, is that for the past half-century, the sun has exerted only a small influence on climate--about 3% compared with the warming influence of greenhouse gases and natural climate cycles (see illustration).

Lockwood says a key advantage of his approach is that he relied on hard data rather than computer models. "One problem that crops up [in the climate discussion] is that scientists use complex models that nonspecialists don't understand and therefore don't trust," he explains.

Lockwood's research represents "a solid look at whether global temperature increases are being driven by changes in the brightness of the sun," says geophysicist Dáithí Stone of the University of Oxford in the U.K. The work suggests that "there is basically no way that this can be the case," he says.
Study
http://publishing.royalsociety.org/media/proceedings_a/rspa20071880.pdf
 
This is interesting, I figuerd it likely wasnt the sun from the begining, but I still think this focus on global warming takes the focus off the greatest threat to human existance, ourselves.
 
How about CO2 absorption from ground cover, like grasses?
 
UVs are hard core outside right now. Lets fight global warming., Reduce reuse recycle. Free ,clean energy sources
 
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

I hate to say "I told you so" but there's more and more proof coming out everyday that debunks the Global Warming theory. My question is will people learn from this example or will they continue to be sheep because some quack came up with an unprovable theory based on limited and recent data?

Does that mean we should give up on renewable resources...no! I think they are just as important regardless of the agenda-based Global Warming theory. We should be good stewards of this Earth and our country needs energy independence.
 
I still say its irrelevant if global warming is a problem, global warming just distracts us from the real issue which doesnt have any "easy" or "acceptable" answers and that is there are too many people on earth, probably twice as many as can live in a sustainable fashion. If we have few people we would have a lower impact on the planet, thus making issues like global warming much more manageable.
 
The greenhouse gas - global warming connection is pretty compelling, even if the results are not known with 100% certainty. It's an infinitely greater threat than terrorism and, if we had a vertebrate for president, we might have been reducing the risk for the last 7 years instead of making things worse. Actually, if our other recent presidents had been vertebrates, we'd be way better off, not just regarding climate, but in many other ways that would be improved with less dependence on energy, cars, trucks and the military necessary to keep everything moving.
 

Aww, nice try, but once again, wrong.

See the same site, less than two months later: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/04/070404-mars-warming.html

And a more comprehensive analysis: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=192

I hate to say "I told you so" but there's more and more proof coming out everyday that debunks the Global Warming theory. My question is will people learn from this example or will they continue to be sheep because some quack came up with an unprovable theory based on limited and recent data?

Wow, I didn't know that the entire community of reputable climatologists consisted of "one quack".

Nor did I know that 144,000 years of data, with multiple confirming sources, was "limited and recent data".



Given how badly you embarrassed yourself in our prior confrontations over evolution, I'd suggest you simply not talk about science anymore, as it's clear you don't have the slightest clue about it.

Mokele
 
No one should be shut out of a discussion. Big problems need to be looked at from every possible direction and experts left to themselves tend to screw everything up. Such as our highway system, which is impeccably engineered but was rammed through inappropriate places and has made the US ridiculously dependent on every dictator with some petroleum underground. If only some people who didn't have the slightest idea about road construction had been allowed to have input decades ago. Now the system is falling apart while the engineers keep busy designing newer and wider roads. Experts are great tools but, in the same way a hammer doesn't get to decide where to drive the nail, experts can't be allowed to make all the decisions or to monopolize the discussion.
 
  • #10
Sorry, but that's just hopelessly naive. There's a difference between getting input from multiple sources, all of whom have different expertise, information, and goals, and letting a discussion be derailed by those who have no facts, no logic, and nothing to contribute.

Should we let creationists decide science course content? Of course not, because they cannot bring anything of value to the discussion, but can derail it with a tide of sheer stupidity.

Sure, experts alone tend to screw things up. I mean, look at science, it's just a bunch of experts, and what's it given us?
Apart from cure to numerous deadly diseases,
Tripling our life expectancy,
Instantaneous global communications,
The ability to fly,
and countless more advances.

Sorry, but I'm sick of this underdog bull. No, not everyone deserves a seat at the table, some opinions are just plain invalid, and some people's opinions are worth more than others. Deal with it.

Mokele
 
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  • #11
C'mon folks you're still on page one.

Be nice, and watch your language.
 
  • #12
I think we need to keep the attacks to a minimum. Discuss the issues and not others beliefs.

Speaking of beliefs, I have a question I've been wondering for a while. This is not an directed at anybody, just an observation at the American system.

Why do all right wings believe that global warming is a lie? Why do left wings believe the world is ending?
Why do the right believe that abortion is murdering a human? And the left believes that an embryo is just a group of cells?
Right wing believes that everybody should have a gun and left wings think nobody should have them.

Why have we become such a divided country that would rather look at onesided facts than the truth? It's like a debating match, we must prove that our side is right instead of looking for the truth.

That is why our politicians won't get anything done. They are too busy in winning than doing the right thing. If you take the blinders off you'd see that the old saying is true, "There are two sides to every story and the truth is somewhere in the middle."

I used to join in these discussions but I finally realized that nobody was listening. Everybody here is too busy trying to prove they are right instead of listening to what others had to say. Just like the scum that runs our country. That is why I refuse to be a democrat or a republican. They are both as narrowminded and blind to the truth as the other. Just like everybody here, they are too busy trying to win an argument then to look at the truth. They only believe the facts that will serve what they want to believe.

I happen to agree with Ktulu and think there are just too many humans on this planet. We have figured out how to change the balance of natural to benefit ourselves at the cost of many the other inhabitants on this planet. The one thing about nature, it always wins. When a species gets out of control, natural will regain control over that species through starvation or disease. There is a song that says, "We are bringing Mother Nature to her knees" I disagree with that, instead it should say "Mother Nature will bring us to our knees".
This climate change that we're experiencing may be natures way of getting us back under control.
 
  • #13
I once thought like Mokele too, but a couple decades of seasoning has changed my mind. Not just for the reason I mentioned above but, last I checked, an expert's vote counts no more than anyone else's. The nation's greatest experts on some issue can get together and determine a solution to a problem and, if they piss everyone off along the way, that's a problem that's guaranteed to continue.

That said, everyone in a debate, not just the "experts", bears the responsibility to consider others' arguments and to be open-minded. People who keep dredging up the same National Geographic article or quoting oil company-funded propaganda are preventing a real discussion. You're either being dishonest with us or with yourself.
 
  • #14
last I checked, an expert's vote counts no more than anyone else's.

One of the system's greatest flaws, yes. And one never intended - everything was supposed to be decided by electors, who were voted on by the people only as wise men who could be trusted to make a smart choice for President.

Even the founders of the US realized that letting the mob decide was stupid. Misogyny and racism may have been behind their decision to restrict voting to white males, but their decision to only allow property-owners to vote was based on the supposition that those individuals would be the most educated segment of society.

Why have we become such a divided country that would rather look at onesided facts than the truth?

Most people never want the truth, only a version that flatters their preconceptions, and this is far from modern. History books have whitewashed the past - elections between the Founding Fathers were just as dirty as now, and there are some pretty nasty campaign posters still preserved from Rome. The myth that there was ever some idyllic past where everyone listened and thought rationally is just that, myth.

Mokele
 
  • #15
What I find the most interesting about the pro-global warming crowd is that they are unwilling to look at other sources for climate change. I mean I really do understand, there is a lot riding on the Global Warming theory in the science realm and that a failure to be correct would remove some rep points but come on...

If people really, truly, cared about the climate change they wouldn't stop at CO2 and would welcome the possibility that it could be the entity that brings this planet heat to begin with. Unless I'm mistaken there isn't a set static variable that determines how hot the sun burns, so why is it out of the realm of possibility? Why are pro-global warming crowds so fast to hush anything that isn't relative to green house gases? I think the answer is obvious.

Mokele:

You're article does not 100% denounce the Sun as being the culprit. Define reputable climatologists for me. Have they successfully predicted a Global Warming in the past? Are any of these reputable climatologists the same climatologists who predicted Global Cooling? We have 144,000 years of temperature recordings? That's news to me. So how warm was the Antarctic ocean 144,000 years ago? I would like to also know what tool was used to read this information, the date, the time and who did it. This is a perfect example of how unscientific the Global warming theory truly is.

I have no problem with green, renewable energy, and support every clean form available ASAP. I have a problem with people who try to dictate what is a universal indisputable truths with a grain of salt.
 
  • #16
While the "nobody knows better than anyone else/Experts dont know anything" is appealing, do you not take the word of an engineer when building a bridge, do you not take the word of a computer technician when you have computer problems? Climatologists study these things their whole professional careers, so it is prudent to assume they know more about climates workings than the average person. I know I assume that about the auto mechanics I bring my car to.

If nobody knew better than anyone else, then why should I take what anybody here says about their own profession/line of work seriously, because your word doesnt count more than anyone else's. But wait, I assume you DO know quite a bit about the things you do for a living, more so than the average joe.

Are exerts often wrong? Do bridges fail? Are there such things as design flaws? Yes, obviously. But because a profession can be wrong sometimes is no reason to assume that therefore they cant get anything right.

Could global warming be wrong? Perhaps, but its a generally a consensus that it is true by climatologists, or, the people who study the effects in question for a living. Of course they could be wrong, but they know more about the stuff than anyone else also.

The think about experts is you have to attack the position and the science itself to make points disputing the general scientific body of knowledge. What do we really know about the human body, modern medicine doesnt know anything more than a witch doctor. Or, what do invasive species biologists really know about ecosystems, they are so complex.


Thats my two cents for this discussion. Please lets be civil... If things start to get nasty I will ask that this thread to be closed because we dont need another smashfest. I almost regret posting this already.
 
  • #17
While the "nobody knows better than anyone else/Experts dont know anything" is appealing, do you not take the word of an engineer when building a bridge, do you not take the word of a computer technician when you have computer problems? Climatologists study these things their whole professional careers, so it is prudent to assume they know more about climates workings than the average person. I know I assume that about the auto mechanics I bring my car to.

If nobody knew better than anyone else, then why should I take what anybody here says about their own profession/line of work seriously, because your word doesnt count more than anyone else's. But wait, I assume you DO know quite a bit about the things you do for a living, more so than the average joe.

Are exerts often wrong? Do bridges fail? Are there such things as design flaws? Yes, obviously. But because a profession can be wrong sometimes is no reason to assume that therefore they cant get anything right.

Could global warming be wrong? Perhaps, but its a generally a consensus that it is true by climatologists, or, the people who study the effects in question for a living. Of course they could be wrong, but they know more about the stuff than anyone else also.

The think about experts is you have to attack the position and the science itself to make points disputing the general scientific body of knowledge. What do we really know about the human body, modern medicine doesnt know anything more than a witch doctor. Or, what do invasive species biologists really know about ecosystems, they are so complex.


Thats my two cents for this discussion. Please lets be civil... If things start to get nasty I will ask that this thread to be closed because we dont need another smashfest. I almost regret posting this already.

Both side's experts have come up with data that contradicts the other side's data. Here's the way I look at it; the Earth has heated up and cooled down many times without human kind's help and will do so long after we're gone. CO2 composes an infinitesimal percentage of the gas that makes up the atmosphere and 90-95% of it that enters the atmosphere every year is created by nature itself. From what I've read, WATER VAPOR is a much bigger factor in the warming effect of the planet. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.

Many people want to feel like there's always something going on that they have to be a part of and they have to fix. They want to believe they are doing some sort of good or making a difference. Global warming or "climate change" as it is often now called is one of those feel good things that some people latch onto for whatever reason. The fact that of the top 10 hottest days in U.S. history, 6 occurred on or before 1953. 5 of them were in 1939 or before. That says something to me.
 
  • #18
Finch, my point is that an expert on climate forcing is an expert on that and, quite often, that alone. Experts have to be part of the solution, but society has to decide on the solution. Global warming is a scientific, social, economic, etc. problem. Involving essentially everything, it becomes a political problem. So scientists who want to be part of the solution have to act in part as a politician and at least pretend to listen, no matter how irritated they might get. Where did we get the word gadfly, after all?

The reason I mentioned roads, by the way, is that they're a terrific example of professional hubris, since the experts (highway departments and engineers) made decisions for years without enough participation by people who didn't know how to design or build a road. They still do. Highways cut city neighborhoods and wetlands in half, with no consideration of them other than for their role to take the cars and water pouring off the highway somewhere else. A lot of the original opposition to rampant road construction was by urban activists and little old ladies in sneakers. They were emotional, few had any relevant education or experience and they annoyed the heck out of the experts. But they were reacting to something that bothered them and paved the way, as it were, for lots of other experts to become involved and try to rein in the roadhogs.

Alien1099, the atmospheric modelers were already grappling with the role of water vapor, clouds, oceanic circulation etc. 20 years ago when I was last around people in that field. They still are because it's all so complex. They don't all agree with each other, but there's something of a consensus. As an aside, I've been thinking a lot about that word because of some things at work and here's a sentence I lifted from the Wikipedia definition - "A too-strict requirement of consensus may effectively give a small self-interested minority group veto power over decisions." Unfortunately, that describes the global warming debate pretty well.
 
  • #19
What I find the most interesting about the pro-global warming crowd is that they are unwilling to look at other sources for climate change.
Um, wrong. There is a difference between "haven't looked at" and "have looked at and ruled out". Guess which is actually applicable here.

If people really, truly, cared about the climate change they wouldn't stop at CO2 and would welcome the possibility that it could be the entity that brings this planet heat to begin with. Unless I'm mistaken there isn't a set static variable that determines how hot the sun burns, so why is it out of the realm of possibility? Why are pro-global warming crowds so fast to hush anything that isn't relative to green house gases? I think the answer is obvious.
Yes, the answer is obvious: in 40 years of direct satellite observation, the sun's energy output has not increased.

You're article does not 100% denounce the Sun as being the culprit.
Um, yes, it does. Read it again, particularly the second one. How can the sun be the source of warming when it hasn't changed output in 40 years (while temps have continued to increase)?

Define reputable climatologists for me
Not funded by oil companies or political groups.

Have they successfully predicted a Global Warming in the past?
Actually, not only have they done so, they've done so on computers less powerful than my iPod. The initial Global Warming climate models were run in the early 80's, and the temperature trends of the past 20 years are within the estimates of those models. Think about how models have been improved since then, and how much more computational power is behind them.

Are any of these reputable climatologists the same climatologists who predicted Global Cooling?
You mean the prediction which never enjoyed any consensus support?

Read this: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/03/the-global-cooling-mole/#more-536

To summarize, in the time of 1965-1979, there only 7 scientific articles that predicted cooling while there were 44 that predicted warming.

The "Global Cooling Craze" is a myth created by the media and right-wing think-tanks which never actually existed. Global warming has been suggested since an article by Ahrenius in 1904, and has been steadily gaining support since then.

We have 144,000 years of temperature recordings? That's news to me. So how warm was the Antarctic ocean 144,000 years ago? I would like to also know what tool was used to read this information, the date, the time and who did it. This is a perfect example of how unscientific the Global warming theory truly is.
Ice cores, which not only record temperatures, but gas concentrations.

But I did mis-state, and should correct myself - it's not 144,000 years of data. It's 400,000 years of data.

Here's a graph:
dn11640-1_800.jpg


Yeah, mighty unscientific, taking direct measurements like that!

I have a problem with people who try to dictate what is a universal indisputable truths with a grain of salt.
Nobody is saying that. What is being said is that we have a mountain of data, all pointing to the same thing, and no data which contradicts it. Come up with data, real data, that supports your POV, and it'll be fairly considered. But don't just toss out incorrect ideas (sunspots and Global Cooling) and expect to be taken seriously.

Both side's experts have come up with data that contradicts the other side's data.
That's because one side's 'experts' are being paid vast sums of money by the oil company to say things which sound good on Faux News, but fall apart upon close examination.

CO2 composes an infinitesimal percentage of the gas that makes up the atmosphere and 90-95% of it that enters the atmosphere every year is created by nature itself. From what I've read, WATER VAPOR is a much bigger factor in the warming effect of the planet. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.
Yes, 95%+ of CO2 is natural. But imagine a bucket with a value that lets out 99 drops of water an hour, and I start adding 100. What happens to the bucket's volume?

Water vapor does warm Earth, but not in a simple fashion; it's more like an amp in a stereo system. More CO2, more warmth, more evaporation, more water vapor, more heat, more evaporation again, etc. The reverse is also true.

Global warming or "climate change" as it is often now called is one of those feel good things that some people latch onto for whatever reason. The fact that of the top 10 hottest days in U.S. history, 6 occurred on or before 1953. 5 of them were in 1939 or before. That says something to me.
That your data analysis is sloppy and poorly performed? Maxima are of trivial importance, what matters are general trends.

Furthermore, Global warming has been happening since the 1850's. If you showed me that all the hottest days were in the 1700's, you might have something, but all your current (inferior) data does is support GW.

Finch, my point is that an expert on climate forcing is an expert on that and, quite often, that alone. Experts have to be part of the solution, but society has to decide on the solution. Global warming is a scientific, social, economic, etc. problem. Involving essentially everything, it becomes a political problem. So scientists who want to be part of the solution have to act in part as a politician and at least pretend to listen, no matter how irritated they might get. Where did we get the word gadfly, after all?
I disagree - one of the greatest flaws of our society is that we do not teach people that their opinions can be flat-out wrong.

The best possible thing climate scientists can do is call these claims out as bull, publicly exposing the claimants as corporate or political hacks. You cannot make good decisions on false information, and as long as people's misconceptions are handled with kid gloves, we will continue wasting time on non-existent debates.

Should biologists pretend to listen and care what creationists have to say? No. They should call a spade a spade and tell people they're just plain wrong.

The reason I mentioned roads, by the way, is that they're a terrific example of professional hubris, since the experts (highway departments and engineers) made decisions for years without enough participation by people who didn't know how to design or build a road.
A cute, but irrelevant story. This isn't about a group saying "I don't want them to bulldoze this old, pretty building". This isn't about conflicting values or interests. It's about basic facts.

You want a better example, there's a reason I keep bringing up creationism (other than that it represents the peak of willful ignorance of science). The success of creationism in at least preventing any meaningful incorporation of evolutionary biology into the high-school classroom is entirely due to the contributions of the 'non-expert' public and people who are foolish enough to consider their opinions as somehow equally valid to those of experts.

I'm all for involving the public in decisions over how to limit CO2 emissions and the like, but I draw the line at letting the uninformed try to claim the facts are other than they are.

When it comes to establishing the factual nature of the world around us, the public needs to learn to sit down, shut up, and listen to the scientists.

Mokele
 
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  • #20
its obviously real thou as cars exhaust are constanly producing emmisions. If kept up, we will all be breathing nasty car exhuast
 
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