Here are the current projections for next week:
WEATHER NEWS: Easterners To Deal With Another Major Storm
A severe winter storm will target the East on Monday (Groundhog Day) into Tuesday. The track will be critical in determining who will be dealing with heavy snow or even potential flooding rain and snowmelt.
AccuWeather.com Expert Meteorologist Joe *******i says the weather pattern unfolding upon the start of February has the potential to yield several major snowstorms in the East over the next four- to six-week period. These storms could boost snowfall for the year above normal in areas that have received little snow so far this season.
The busy storm track indicates that temperatures could be sent on more of a roller coaster ride, rather than just remaining a bitterly cold or mild.
A Look at the Range of Scenarios
There are still several scenarios for the track of the "Groundhog Day Storm," which is not expected to even develop until the Sunday-Sunday night time frame. It will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. Current thinking here at AccuWeather.com is that a track along or close to the East Coast is most likely.
The path the storm takes is critical in determining who gets rain, who gets snow, and who gets damaging thunderstorms. Snow will fall to the west of the storm's path, while mostly rain will fall to the east.
A path west of the Appalachians seems to be the least likely path. This path would allow mostly rain to fall in the Northeast. This scenario would cause some potentially serious flooding issues with both heavy rain and melting snow in New England.
An eastward shift in the track of the storm would draw colder air and the potential for snow in the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor. It would also limit the heavy amount of snow that is expected to fall in the recently hard-hit Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
Damaging thunderstorms are likely to affect Florida even with the range of scenarios, but potent storms could develop as far north as Virginia if the storm's center moves just inland or any farther to the west.
Behind the system, very cold air will be sent into the Northeast by gusty winds. This means that some lake-effect snow will follow this storm for typical snowbelts downwind of the Great Lakes into midweek.
The Most Likely Track
The track that is most likely is near or along the East Coast; however, computer models are still jumping around and mainly trending the storm to move farther to the east. The storm could end up staying off the coast through Tuesday as it pushes northward from the mid-Atlantic to New England.
The biggest cities along the Interstate 95 corridor will contend with rain and some snow. It looks like accumulating snow will fall from Philadelphia to Boston.
Meanwhile, rain will be the biggest threat along the immediate coast. Some snow is expected to make an appearance all the way to the beaches of New Jersey and Long Island by Tuesday morning after the height of the storm brings rain on Monday night. Also, at the height of the storm, strong onshore winds will produce large, dangerous waves. Beach erosion and coastal flooding will both be threats with the increased tide.
Significant snow will fall over the Appalachians with the current forecast storm track. The mountains of Tennessee through western Pennsylvania and New York will be in the corridor of heaviest snow. In fact, as much as a foot or two could fall over some areas, crippling travel and closing schools. Gusty winds could also cause near-blizzard conditions over some locales in this corridor.
Residents of Pittsburgh and Buffalo could both be digging out of from a major snowfall early next week.
Some snow may even cause hazards as far south as northern Mississippi as colder air pours in behind the powerful system.
A storm track just off the coast would be the ultimate scenario for heavy snow in the cities from Richmond, Va., to New York to Boston. Strong winds would cause blowing and drifting snow as well. Significant, but less snow would fall in the Appalachians. Severe thunderstorms would generally be limited to the Florida Peninsula in this case.
Storm To Impact Travel, Potentially Crippling Some
The impact on travel Monday into Tuesday night will be great. Flight delays may mount due to direct and indirect, ripple-down effects from the storm. Some schools may close due to heavy snow, flooding risks and severe cold.
As the storm pushes up the Atlantic Seaboard and cold air plunges southward in its wake, accumulating snow may even hinder travel as far south as northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia on Monday.
The storm will intensify over New England on Tuesday, potentially leading to dangerous blizzard conditions to the west of its center. Severe blowing and drifting snow with extremely poor visibility will make travel nearly impossible in areas where snow fell from the storm.
Dangerous storms will even disrupt travel in the South, especially in Florida. This could cause trouble for those heading home from the Super Bowl on Monday.
Regardless of the storm's track, harsh cold and blustery winds will grip the entire eastern third of the nation in its wake on Tuesday into Wednesday. AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures will be significantly colder than actual thermometer readings.
Strong winds will also be found east of the storm's center. A track along or west of the Northeast's coastline would allow winds to blow directly at the beaches. Pounding waves and coastal flooding could result.
The Bottom Line
While the range of possibilities has narrowed, a difference in storm track by a couple of hundred miles could mean the difference between heavy snow, heavy rain or nothing at all at your particular location.
All residents across the eastern third of the nation are urged to check back with AccuWeather.com through the weekend as the exact details of the storm become clearer.