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Enjoy the warm weather!

Much of the Eastern US has returned to normal and below normal levels over the past week or so. After over 1 month of very mild weather, the pattern has finally changed. We have progressed into a pattern where there is a ridge over the West and a trough over the East. This mean that air from Canada is allowed to dip down into the Eastern US and keep us around normal readings, with occasional shots of cold air bringing many below normal. Well, it is going to get VERY cold in the Eastern 2/3rds of the country. By January 30 (plus or minus a few days) the polar vortex will move over the near Hudson Bay. What does this mean? This means we will develop a transpolar flow where air from Siberia flows across the North Pole, into Canada, and into the US. This means that by the end of this month/beginning of Febuary, many places will have extremely cold weather. With below normal levels of snow pack in the Northeast, the air probably will not be record breaking in most areas, but it will be very cold. Many places in the Northeast will see highs in the single digits to middle teens. The Midwest could see highs ranging from 0F to around -20F, depending on where you live. Lows could easily go as low as -60F in a few cold spots. Here is a computer model that shows what I am talking about. The yellow, orange, and red areas are temperatures WELL below zero. Overall, this looks like a very cold airmass that could break records in many places of the US.
gfsx_850_10d_inv.gif
 
I've been saying it for years. Canada and their Polar Vortexes can not be trusted.

Thanks a lot Canada!
 
Warm weather? Argh. We've had record lows here and many here have lost a sizeable part of their collection.
 
I really like how trippy that looks, and how they ended up going from hot back to hot colors for the cold colds...
 
>_< West coast is still cold as can be. I've lost plants, growers have lost crops from it, and here you East coast bubs are going on about your warm weather. lol! :p
 
just very recently warmed up here from some pretty chilly temps. Glad to see its moving away from my area.

Its interesting these cold temps- they keep southeners in touch with reality :0o:
 
Been in the 80's here all winter - its supposed to cool down to the 70's over the next couple of days. I may have to take precautions and cover my tomato plants from the cold snap! Actually the last time we had a frost here was January of 2003, unfortunately that means the mosquitoes can breed year round and we don't get a break.
 
Preeetty coloorrrsssss....................... that's all I see in that... x_x

It's been snowing lately here, I'd rather it stayed that way.

I like snow. :D


OMG OMG OMG!! 1,000th POST! I can't believe it took me over 4 years to get 1,000 posts. x_x
 
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It WAS very warm here...60-70s. It was great weather to be outside in January! But that's gone now. Days aren't bad...in the low 40s, nites in the 20s. Sunday we had a LITTLE snow, dusting on the ground, followed by a period of sleet, then sleet/rain, then freezing rain. The snow was pretty but everything else kinda sucked. It was just cold and icy. Sun is out today but its chilly.
 
  • #10
It's about time! Buffalo is supposed to be cold and snowy!
 
  • #11
>_< West coast is still cold as can be. I've lost plants, growers have lost crops from it, and here you East coast bubs are going on about your warm weather. lol! :p

The West coast should begin to warm up to above average over the next few days as a strong ridge builds in. Fortunately, those who have lost plants and crops from the cold in the West will have average to above average temperatures for at least 2 weeks. Meanwhile, those in the East should have average to below average temperatures. For Florida, temps should remain mild until the end of this month, when temperatures could get near or below freezing in many parts of Florida, especially the panhandle.

Jim, you should get a lot of lake effect snow over the coming weeks as a NW wind blows. Your snowfall will probably end up close to average or even slightly above average by the time this winter is over.

Chronokiento, notice how the reds come from the North Pole all the way down into the northern US. This means that the air is originating all the way from Siberia, and is heading straight into the Eastern US. The yellowish/greenish colors indicate daytime highs of -35F and lows of -50F.

EDIT: Here is what the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is saying about the arctic outbreak.

For Monday January 29 - Friday February 02: A massive Arctic air mass, one of the most extensive seen in recent years, is expected to overspread much of the eastern two-thirds of the Nation during the first half of this period, with at least one reinforcing cold outbreak in the latter part of this period. Although model runs differ on the timing and exact location, it is likely that a storm moving along the southern boundary of the cold air will produce a significant precipitation event consisting of mainly a hazardous wintry mix from northeastern Texas across the interior South with heavy snow possible from the mid-Altnatic States to New England. Some uncertainty is introduced by the fact that although it predicts a significant system across the South, the latest 12z GFS operational model run does not bring heavy precipitation north of the Carolinas.
 
  • #12
Just like Buster1 said, it's been nice here in FL all winter :)
 
  • #13
Just like Buster1 said, it's been nice here in FL all winter :)
Come on Niki! Haven't you seen Home Alone 2? Out of all people you should know that there is no such thing as winter in Florida. :-O
 
  • #14
Tomorrow's forecast for Buffalo: 13 F for the high.
 
  • #15
That's not true is it?? About FL not having winter, I thought FL had all 4 seasons! I have not seen Home Alone 2 so I may be missing something :scratch:
 
  • #16
Tomorrow's forecast for Buffalo: 13 F for the high.


You will probably see highs stay in the single digits. I am thinking about 8F for Buffalo. You may also get some nice, heavy lake effect snow bands.
 
  • #17
Here's our 10 Day Forecast:

10-Day Forecast for
East Aurora, NY (14052)

Weather for your life

See Weather Related to...Aches & PainsAir Quality & PollutionAllergies & PollenBoat & BeachCold & FluFitness & ExerciseFlights & Business TravelGolf WeatherHealthHome ImprovementInterstate Driving ForecastLawn & GardenOutdoor RecreationPetsSchoolday WeatherSki ConditionsSkin ProtectionSporting EventsVacation & Travel GuideWedding Planner


Forecast Conditions High/Low °F Precip.
Chance High Temperatures Low Temperatures Precipitation Wind Speed
Tonight
Jan 24 Snow Shower
N/A/14° 60%


High not valid after 2pm
Thu
Jan 25 Snow Shower
14°/5° 70%
14°F

Protect Your Plants From the Cold
Fri
Jan 26 Snow Shower
15°/15° 50%
15°F

Sat
Jan 27 Few Snow Showers
30°/20° 30%
30°F

Sun
Jan 28 Snow Shower
20°/12° 60%
20°F

Protect Your Plants From the Cold
Mon
Jan 29 Few Snow Showers
18°/18° 30%
18°F

Tue
Jan 30 Snow Shower
22°/17° 60%
22°F

Wed
Jan 31 Snow Shower
21°/17° 60%
21°F

Learn How Cold Affects Your Health
Thu
Feb 1 Snow Shower
26°/21° 60%
26°F

Fri
Feb 2 Rain / Snow Showers
30°/21° 40%
30°F


See a pattern?:crazy:
 
  • #18
Hey Jim, I would not use the weather channel for forecasts. I have learned the hard way the their forecasts can bust by more than 40F in situations with arctic air. For my area, they were up to 20F to warm for daytime highs from the last arctic outbreak. With air from Siberia, you can expect high temperatures a good 10-20F colder during the end of the 10 day forecast period. You should see alot of lake effect snow with a NW wind, and the forecast definately shows what I am talking about. Hope you enjoy your snow up in New York!.
 
  • #19
What?! I can't trust the fine folks at (Jeanetta Jones, Cheryl Lemke, Jim Cantore,...) TWC?
 
  • #20
What?! I can't trust the fine folks at (Jeanetta Jones, Cheryl Lemke, Jim Cantore,...) TWC?

They do not make up the weather forecasts. The forecasts are model generated and can be way off when it comes to Arctic air, like in this situation. Generally, though, TWC is pretty accurate for the short range. Around the 10th of February, the pattern may once again change into a slightly milder pattern, but there is still alot of variables out there that could happen between now and then.
 
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